Editorial: Predicting the future

As we reach the end of 2002, it seems appropriate to reflect on the year behind us and look forward to the year ahead. The first issue of this magazine for which I take credit or blame was the January/February 2002 issue. It has been a rewarding year. Readers have welcomed our concept and our efforts. All that is good, but it is looking backwards. Now we look toward the future.

While the direction of the economy and its impact on the plastics processing business is a deadly serious matter, it can help to take a lighter view of the business of predicting that future.

We know of at least three ways to predict the future, each of which offer equally poor results. The first is to use a crystal ball. But it?s been a tough year for crystal balls. At least one member of the plastics industry has been heard bemoaning ?My crystal ball is broken.?

Another technique is to use a dartboard. It is reported that a leading financial publication periodically chooses a portfolio of stocks by putting the stock listings up on the wall and choosing investments by throwing darts at it. If nothing else, the result is likely to be the oft-recommended diversified portfolio. Sometimes the dart-chosen portfolio even outperforms a portfolio chosen by esteemed investment advisors.

The third technique, apparently widely used in government circles, was brought to us by a prominent member of the plastics industry who shall remain unnamed. It involves gathering masses of data in whatever form available. After careful analysis of this data, highly placed personnel predict the future direction of the economy. The technique is known as SWAG, which stands for Scientific Wild Ass Guess. This technique has broad application in predicting sales, setting budgets, and so on.

In predicting the future, we like to get more favorable results than any of these three techniques provide. We find that if we stick to a few specific predictions, our batting average is really good.

Try these predictions:

OK, it?s true that we?re not exactly going out on a limb. It is also true that we will continue to provide the best in plastics processing equipment coverage in the future. We need no crystal ball, darts, or complex data to predict that.

Happy Holidays, and see you in 2003.


Merle R. Snyder
Editor
Plastics Auxiliaries & Machinery